North-eastern India may be next in line to be called as a COVID hotspot

DoNER Ministry worried & predicted that northeast India can be the next COVID cluster after the second have hit badly in the states like Maharastra, Karnataka, Delhi and Gujarat. The forecast is based on data till May 21 and current scenarios are suggesting that there is steep rise in COVID cases in North eastern states. A research organisation known as the Development Data Lab is conducting this research based on open data. A team lead by Anup Malani of University of Chicago calculates the COVID-19 reproductive rate (Rt) for each day and which is greater than 1 for all of the Northeastern states. For example a state with Rt value of 1.36 which is the latest value of Tripura means, that state could witness an increase from 100 to 5000 in just two weeks whereas an Rt value of 0.89 which is the value of Karnataka at present suggests that cases could reduce from 100 to 22 in two weeks.

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The value of Rt for North eastern states on May 21 stands out to be 1.36 for Tripura, 1.31 for Meghalaya, 1.26 for Arunachal Pradesh and other North Eastern states tends to be in the range of 1.02 to 1.20. Not only in North-Eastern states but Lakshadeep, Odisha, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Ladakh and West Bengal are also having Rt value greater than 1.

In the District wise data, Tripura’s Khowai and Sepahijala district remains in the Danger zone while Upper Subansiri district of Arunachal Pradesh is having the highest Rt value of 1.6. An extension of the ongoing lockdown in Tripura was announced today which will be in effect till 5th of June and which will be stricter than the earlier one.




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